Actualizado: Domingo, 27 mayo 2018
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La Plata
Análisis electoral de la provincia de Buenos Aires
El 2011 está cada día más cerca, por lo que se hace indispensable un análisis detallado de los distritos en los cuales se dará una batalla electoral muy grande entre el oficialismo y la oposición. Examen exhaustivo de la mayor jurisdicción de la Argentina, la provincia de Buenos Aires
Publicada 20/08 | Imprimir | Enviar | + - Tamaño

Las elecciones del año que viene sin duda marcarán un antes y un después en la historia contemporánea argentina, tanto desde el gobierno nacional como desde la oposición, que vienen anunciando que la denominada “madre de todas las batallas” electorales, se desarrollará en la provincia de Buenos Aires.

 

El principal territorio político de la Argentina verá sacar lo peor y lo mejor de cada una de las fuerzas políticas, que pondrán todo su arsenal mediático y de propuestas en este distrito de casi 15 millones de habitantes, para poder ganar la confianza del ciudadano común no politizado y poder triunfar en las elecciones que por ahora están pautadas para el 24 de octubre del 2011.

 

La campaña política arranca de una manera bastante diferente a años anteriores, ya que por primera vez en muchos años en la provincia de Buenos Aires, tres fuerzas arrancan con posibilidades similares, aunque el oficialismo por ser gobierno, tenga mayores chances de poder acceder al primer lugar en la elección general, dado la enorme significancia que tiene dicho territorio en la general.

 

Perspectiva nacional

 

De las 35 bancas a nivel nacional que se renuevan el año que viene perteneciente a la provincia de Buenos Aires, 17 corresponden al oficialismo y sus aliados y 18 a los partidos opositores. Para que el kirchnerismo mantenga los legisladores debe hacer una elección muy buena, del orden del 45% de los votos, que según todos los trabajos efectuados hasta el momento, no llega a ese número, por lo que perderá varias bancas que le complicarán su labor en el Congreso de cara al futuro.

 

Recordemos que quienes se van del Parlamento el año que viene, entraron luego de la gran elección que hizo Cristina Fernández en el 2007, donde sacó el 45.91% de los votos, algo por ahora impensable para el kirchnerismo, que verá perder bancas sustanciales que mermarán su ya reducido bloque de diputados nacionales.

 

Los cargos que se elegirán en el acto eleccionario del año que viene son además de presidente y vicepresidente, la de Gobernador y Vice, sumándole a eso 35 diputados nacionales, 3 Senadores nacionales, 46 Diputados Provinciales y 23 Senadores Provinciales.

 

En el ámbito nacional, se renovarán los tres senadores nacionales que le corresponden a la provincia, por lo que Eric Calcagno, José Pampuro e Hilda "Chiche" Duhalde dejarán sus lugares para los nuevos senadores que elija el pueblo bonaerense. En caso de repetirse la elección del año 2009, el Frente para la Victoria perdería uno de los senadores que tiene en estos momentos, mientras que el Peronismo federal incrementaría en un lugar su bancada.

 

Por su parte, los diputados del oficialismo que se irán del Parlamento son: Octavio Argüello, Ariel Basteiro, Gloria Bidegain, José María Díaz Bancalari, Graciela Giannettasio, Jorge Landau, María Laura Leguizamón, Juan Carlos Lorges, Ariel Pasini, Adriana Puiggros, Jorge Rivas, Ramón Ruiz, Adela Segarra, Juan Carlos Sluga, Silvia Vázquez, Patricia Gardella.

 

Del lado de la oposición, quienes dejarán sus bancas son: Elisa Carca, Héctor Flores, Juan Carlos Morán, Adrián Pérez, Elsa Quiroz (Coalición Cívica); Norberto Erro, Daniel Katz, Rubén Lanceta, Sandra Rioboo, Gustavo Serebrinsky (UCR); Christian Gribaudo, Lidia Satragno (Unión-PRO); Horacio Alcuaz, Virginia Linares (GEN); Juan José Álvarez, Graciela Camaño (Peronismo Federal); Ricardo Cuccovillo (Partido Socialista); Victoria Donda (Libres del Sur); y Eduardo Macaluse (SI).

 

Si se repitiera el escenario electoral del año pasado, que según los analistas políticos más destacados, es lo más probable, el kirchnerismo que salió segundo con el 32,11% de los votos, podría llegar a retener entre 11 y 12 de los 17 diputados nacionales que pone en juego, quedando detrás de Unión-Pro, que el 28 de junio del año pasado dio la gran sorpresa al derrotar a Néstor Kirchner con la candidatura de Francisco De Narváez, quien sacó el 34,58% de los votos, consiguiendo 14 diputados nacionales, consiguiendo una gran acumulación de legisladores, ya que de los 4 que renueva podría llegar a tener 10 nuevos legisladores.

 

Pero sin duda que el lugar en el que se dará la mayor pelea interna será en lo que queda del Acuerdo Cívico y Social, que a pesar del alejamiento de Elisa Carió hace algunos días del mismo, sueña con reeditar la elección del 2009 y que de la mano de la candidatura presidencial de Ricardo Alfonsín, arrastrar una buena cantidad de votos hacia sus candidatos.

 

El problema dentro del panradicalismo está en que el año pasado salió tercero detrás de las dos vertientes del peronismo, consiguiendo el 21,48% de los votos, consiguió 8 bancas nacionales, y en el 2011 deberá renovar 13 de las que tiene actualmente, 5 corresponden a la CC , 5 la UCR , 1 el PS y 2 el GEN. Yendo todos juntos dentro de una misma boleta, y consiguiendo el mismo caudal de votos que el año pasado, el Acuerdo Cívico y Social conseguiría retener 8 de las 13 bancas que pone en juego, complicándose el lugar que están destinados a los distintos miembros del armado opositor, que de esa manera habría una gran interna para ver los primeros lugares de la lista.

 

Menudo problema se le arma al ACyS si Carrió decide ir por su lado y dividir al armado panradical, ya que complicaría las cosas por el sostenido arrastre electoral que tiene la chaqueña en distintas zonas de la provincia, como Mar del Plata, La Plata y Bahía Blanca, lo que le haría perder codiciadas bancas a dicho espacio.

 

Del lado de la centroizquierda nacional está el Nuevo Encuentro que conduce el diputado nacional y ex intendente de la localidad de Morón, Martín Sabbatella, quien el año pasado consiguió el 5,56% de votos y ya tiene planteada su candidatura a gobernador. Todo lo que consiga este espacio será ganancia, ya que no pone ninguna banca en juego, y las chances de hacer crecer este espacio dentro de la Cámara de Diputados, así como la de conseguir espacios dentro de la Legislatura provincial, es algo que entusiasma a la tropa de uno de los referentes del progresismo nacional.

 

Por último, resta saber qué actitud tomará Pino Solanas y Proyecto Sur en la provincia de Buenos Aires, y preguntarse si el líder sindical de la CTA, Víctor De Gennaro pegará el salto a la política partidaria y será candidato por este sector, que puede sacarles jugosos votos tanto al kirchnerismo como al radicalismo de cara a la elección general del año que viene.

 

Como puede verse, quien parece estar mejor parado de cara al 2011 en materia legislativa, son el Peronismo Federal y las fuerzas de la centroizquierda nacional, que verían engrosar en forma considerable el número de su bloque, mientras que el Frente para la Victoria y el  Acuerdo Cívico y Social (en cualquiera de sus vertientes), verían retroceder su número de legisladores, complicándose su actividad parlamentaria de cara al futuro.

 

Panorama provincial

 

La provincia de Buenos Aires está  compuesta por 8 secciones electorales, y que en forma iguales deberán renovar en 4 de ellas Diputados provinciales (Primera, Cuarta, Quinta y Séptima) y en las otras 4 a Senadores provinciales (Segunda, Tercera, Sexta y Octava), en lo que también los analistas presumen podría llegar a convertirse en un duro revés para el oficialismo, por la cantidad de bancas que perdería en ambas cámaras.

 

En la PRIMERA sección electoral, que comprende 23 distritos, entre los más importantes están Tres de Febrero, San Isidro, Vicente López y Pilar, todos ellos del norte y oeste del conurbano bonaerense, se eligen 15 diputados provinciales, renovando 8 el FpV (Alfredo Antonuccio, Sandra Cruz, Horacio González, Franco La Porta , Claudia Prince, Adriana Toloza, Jorge Varela y Gabriel Villegas); 2 la CC (Sebastián Cinquerrui y Liliana Piani); 2 Unión-PRO (Damián Cardoso y Ramiro Tagliaferro); 1 el GEN (Juan Carlos Juárez); 1 la Concertación (Horacio De Simone); y 1 la UCR (Cecilia Moreau).

 

Si se repitieran los números de las elecciones del año pasado, donde el FpV obtuvo el 33,21% contra el 33,10% de Unión-PRO y el 18,74% del ACyS, el oficialismo obtendría 6 legisladores, contra 6 del Peronismo Federal y sólo 3 del panradicalismo, una situación complicada tanto para el FpV como para el ACyS de cara al futuro, que perderían varias de las bancas que ponen en juego.

 

La entrada en juego de dos nuevos factores de poder en esta sección electoral, como lo son Martín Sabbatella y Pino Solanas, pueden hacer desequilibrar el armado político del 2011, y si a eso le sumamos la división del ACyS con Lilita Carrió por el otro lado, se espera una elección, según todos los analistas, por demás complicada para los partidos tradicionales, que podrían arañar como máximo 5 diputados provinciales cada uno, pasando el resto de los 5 a nuevas fuerzas políticas.

 

En la SEGUNDA sección electoral se compone de 15 distritos, siendo los más importantes San Nicolás y Pergamino, renovando en el 2011 a 5 senadores provinciales, de los cuales hoy en día el FpV tiene a 3 de ellos (Edda Acuña, Ricardo Bozzani y Carlos Ferreyra), 1 el GEN (Andrés Antodoménico) y 1 la CC (Gerardo Reverberi).

 

En este caso, todos los analistas dan por seguro una pelea cabeza a cabeza entre el ACyS (si es que van todos juntos) y el Peronismo Federal, dejando en tercer lugar al FpV, cuyo líder en la región, el diputado nacional José María Díaz Bancalari, no logra dar pié con bola. Los estudios de opinión efectuados en la región le darían en estos momentos 2 senadores al ACyS y 2 al Peronismo Federal, mientras que el FpV obtendría sólo1, perdiendo de esa manera 2 senadores en esta sección, lo que le complicaría las cosas al próximo gobierno provincial si el oficialismo sigue en lo máximo del poder provincial.

 

En la TERCERA sección electoral, compuesta por la parte sur del conurbano bonaerense, donde la vedette de la región es La Matanza, se elegirán 9 Senadores provinciales, de los cuales 6 responden al oficialismo (Viviana Arcidiácono, Cristina Fioramonti, Marta Helguero, Jorge Pirozzolo, Roberto Ravale y Federico Scarabino), 2 a la CC (Daniel Expósito y Fernando López Villa), y 1 al Peronismo Federal (Antonio Nieto).

 

En caso de que los resultados fueran parecidos a los del 2009, el FpV perdería 1 o 2 senadores, ya que lo máximo que podría aspirar el oficialismo es a renovar 5 de las 6 bancas que pone en juego, ganando algunas de ellas el Peronismo Federal y el panradicalismo.

 

En esta sección, por su estrecha ligazón a la Capital Federal, puede llegar a tener incidencia Proyecto Sur con Pino Solanas a la cabeza, que al igual que el Nuevo Encuentro de Sabbatella, pueden llegar a arrebatarle preciados votos al oficialismo desde la centroizquierda nacional y complicar aún más el panorama para los partidos tradicionales en la sección.

 

En la CUARTA sección electoral, compuesta por 19 distritos, entre los que sobresalen Junín y Chacabuco, se eligen 14 diputados provinciales, de los cuales la mitad corresponden al oficialismo (Emilio Monzó, Horacio Delgado, Darío Duretti, Eduardo Gatica, Marta Medici, Roberto Passo y Graciela Rolandi), 2 a la CC (Maricel Etchecoin Moro y Abel Miguel), 2 a la Concertación (Rodolfo Arata y Silvia Crocco), 2 a la UCR (Juan José Cavallari y Gustavo Zuccari) y 1 al GEN (Abel Buil).

 

Esta sección, con eminente predominio del voto rural, la posibilidad de que el oficialismo pueda retener a la mayoría de los legisladores se ve como muy complicada, por lo que la oposición, sobre todo el Peronismo Federal (que ya ganó el año pasado con Unión PRO) y el panradicalismo, pueden hacer una gran elección y dejar sumergidos en una profunda crisis al kirchnerismo.

 

En la QUINTA sección electoral, compuesta por 23 distritos, en los cuales los principales son Mar del Plata y Tandil, se eligen 11 Diputados provinciales, de los que hoy en día corresponden 4 al FpV (Juan de Jesús, Juan Garivoto, Tomás Hogan y Daniel Rodríguez), 2 al GEN (Ana de Otazúa y Carlos Nivio), 2 a la UCR (Juan Gobbi y Ricardo Jano), 1 a la CC (Armando Abruza), 1 a Unión PRO (Ramiro Gutiérrez), y 1 a la Concertación (Julia García).

 

Los sondeos por el momento dan que la oposición con el radicalismo y el Peronismo Federal llevan todas las de ganar y con altas chances de repetir los resultados del 2009, donde el FpV quedó en tercera posición, lo que haría que la proporción quede 5 diputados para el que salga en primer lugar, 3 o 4 para el segundo, y 2 o 3 para el tercero, con lo cual el kirchnerismo saldría perdiendo en cualquiera de los escenarios planteados.

 

En la SEXTA sección, compuesta por 22 distritos donde sobresale Bahía Blanca, se eligen seis Senadores provinciales, donde en la actualidad 4 de ellos responden al oficialismo (Roberto Fernández, Carlos Mosse, Santiago Nardelli y Elsa Strizzi) y 2 al GEN (Roberto Molini y José María Zingoni).

 

El año pasado el Peronismo Federal con Unión PRO y el ACyS, dejaron en tercer lugar al FpV, y los analistas sospechan que por el amplio predominio rural de la zona, el resultado podría llega a repetirse, con lo que el oficialismo podría llegar a retener sólo 1 de las 4 bancas que pone en juego, quedando las otras 5 para la oposición, 3 de ellas para el PJ disidente y 2 para el ACyS.

 

En la SÉPTIMA sección electoral que comprende a 8 distritos, siendo los más conocidos Azul y Olavarría, se eligen 6 Diputados provinciales, que en la actualidad están 3 en manos del FpV (Jorge Bucca, Patricio López Mancinelli y Alicia Tabarés), 1 a la CC (Jorge Cravero), 1 al GEN (José Luis Comparato) y 1 al Peronismo Federal (Mario Cura).

 

En una sección donde el voto rural es mayoritario, el oficialismo cuenta con todas las de perder, cosa que ya le sucedió el año pasado cuando salió en tercer lugar, y de las 3 bancas que pone en juego a lo máximo que puede aspirar es a retener con suma suerte a 2 de ellas, pero los analistas indican que en realidad el Peronismo Federal cuenta con las mayores chances de ganar la elección, lo que le daría 3 legisladores, contra 2 del que saldría segundo, que por estos momentos sería el ACyS.

 

En la OCTAVA sección electoral, que corresponde al distrito capital, es decir, la ciudad de La Plata, se eligen 3 senadores provinciales, donde el FpV tiene sólo a 1 de ellos (Guido Carlotto), y los otros son Luis Malagamba (GEN) y Javier Mor Roig (CC).

 

La ciudad de La Plata es uno de los distritos más adversos hacia el kirchnerismo, donde perdió inclusive en el año 2007, donde Elisa Carrió le ganó a Cristina Fernández, por lo que la alianza atada de los pelos que mantiene el santacruceño con el intendente Pablo Bruera, no le garantiza en lo absoluto una buena elección en el 2011, complicando loas chances del ex presidente de lograr un triunfo electoral en primera vuelta.

 

En esta sección podría llegar a jugar fuerte también la figura de referentes de la oposición ligados al progresismo nacional, como lo son Margarita Stolbizer y Pino Solanas, y llegar a sacarle más votos al oficialismo y hacer que los candidatos opositores ganen más adeptos de cara a las elecciones del año que viene.

 

Panorama por demás complejo el que se le presenta al matrimonio presidencial de cara al futuro, y es por eso que como se dice en la jerga popular, ha puesto “toda la carne en el asador” para intentar revertir la imagen negativa que se tiene del gobierno en la sociedad argentina y con el cual desplegará toda su artillería pesada para intentar en lo más alto del poder y poder llegar al 2011 con serias chances de seguir conduciendo al Estado nacional.

 

A pesar de que logre un triunfo en la provincia de Buenos Aires, el poder de Néstor Kirchner quedará muy debilitado de cara al futuro, y eso es algo que aprovecharán sus enemigos internos dentro del Partido Justicialista, que ven el 2011 como la fecha ideal para dar por terminado el período de hegemonía kirchnerista y empezar a construir de esa manera una nueva alternativa nacida desde el propio Justicialismo de cara a las elecciones.

 

Situación enmarañada por la que se encuentra pasando el ex presidente Néstor Kirchner por estos días, con encuestas que no muestran los números que él desea ver y que lo sumergen en un alto grado de imprevisibilidad e incertidumbre, que sólo será develado en octubre del año viene, donde la población como siempre tendrá la última palabra.

 

 

Publicada 20/08 | Imprimir | Enviar | + - Tamaño
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Frutal
Por que el tomate no toma café?
Porque toma-té
Festejo bostero
Daniel Ivoskus, legislador bonaerense por Cambiemos, fue uno de los políticos que estuvieron en la Bombonera para festejar el nuevo título de Boca Juniors
Cambio de mando en el PJ
Tras confirmarse su precandidatura a Diputado Nacional por la Provincia, Fernando Espinoza decidió tomarse licencia como presidente del PJ bonaerense.
Funcionarios en comunión por "Pelusa"
El intendente de La Plata, Julio Garro, y el Defensor del Pueblo Guido Lorenzino, se hicieron presentes en el Zoológico platense para hacer un seguimiento del estado de salud de la elefanta "Pelusa"
Funcionario borracho arriba del escenario
Se trata de Julián Barabino, el Director de Cultura de la Municipalidad de Río Gallegos quién se subió al escenario mientras tocaba la banda Pez, tomó el micrófono y se puso a cantar
El seleccionado argentino de fútbol empató anoche con Uruguay 0 a 0 y se mantiene en zona de repechaje rumbo al Mundial Rusia 2018
El tenista Juan Martín Del Potro escribió otra noche histórica en el Abierto de los Estados Unidos al derrotar en cuatro sets al suizo Roger Federer y avanzar a las semifinales del torneo, instancia en la que jugará mañana ante el número 1 del mundo, el español Rafael Nadal
El delantero Luis Suárez tomó parte de la actividad desarrollada esta tarde por el seleccionado uruguayo de fútbol y aún no fue descartado para el partido del próximo jueves ante la Argentina por las Eliminatorias Sudamericanas para el Mundial de Rusia 2018
Estudiantes de La Plata perdió esta noche ante el oportuno Nacional de Paraguay 1-0 en el Estadio Defensores del Chaco, en Asunción, en juego de ida por los octavos de final de la Copa Conmebol Sudamericana
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